Japan’s birth rate and number of births have both fallen to record lows, with annual births dropping to around 670,000, nearly 15 years ahead of government projections.
TOKYO, JAPAN (MERXWIRE) – Japan is facing an accelerating demographic crisis as its birth rate continues to decline sharply. According to the latest population statistics released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan recorded 671,061 births in 2025, a decrease of 14,937 from the previous year. This marks the tenth consecutive year of record lows. The total fertility rate, which represents the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, also fell to 1.14—down 0.01 from the previous year and the lowest level on record.
In response to the ongoing decline, the Japanese government has expanded its countermeasures through the “Children’s Future Strategy” and established a Population Strategy Headquarters in November 2025 to centralize demographic policy planning. However, the pace of decline has far exceeded expectations. The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research had originally projected that birth numbers would fall to this level around 2040, meaning the current situation has arrived approximately 15 years earlier than anticipated.
The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare attributes the decline to a shrinking population of women of reproductive age, along with delayed marriage and childbirth trends. Since 1975, Japan’s birth numbers have continued to decline, falling below 1 million in 2016 and dropping below 700,000 in 2024 before reaching a new low in 2025. Although the annual rate of decline has recently slowed to around 2.2%, the overall downward trend remains unchanged.
Regional disparities persist, with 13 prefectures recording increases in birth rates compared to the previous year, showing a general pattern of higher rates in western Japan and lower rates in eastern regions. Okinawa recorded the highest fertility rate at 1.52, followed by Miyazaki at 1.46 and Fukui at 1.45. Tokyo recorded the lowest rate at 0.96, remaining below 1.0 for the third consecutive year. Hokkaido and Miyagi both reported a rate of 1.00.
Marriage figures showed a slight rebound, with 489,119 marriages recorded in 2025, an increase of 4,027 from the previous year. This marks the second consecutive annual increase, although the figure remains significantly below the pre-pandemic level of approximately 599,000 in 2019. The average age at first marriage is now 31.0 for men and 29.7 for women, while the average age of mothers at first childbirth has also reached 31.0, reflecting a continued trend toward later marriage and delayed childbearing.
Japan’s population decline is also accelerating. According to the latest census data, the total population has fallen to 123.04 million, a decrease of 3.09 million from the previous survey, marking the largest recorded decline. Deaths in 2025 totaled 1,589,489, slightly lower than the previous year and marking the first decline in five years. However, deaths still far exceed births, resulting in a natural population decrease of 918,253. This marks the 19th consecutive year in which deaths have outnumbered births.
Experts warn that Japan’s shrinking population will have far-reaching consequences beyond demographics, significantly affecting the economy and social structure. As the labor force continues to shrink, industries such as healthcare, construction, logistics, and services are facing severe labor shortages. Companies are responding by raising wages, extending retirement ages, and increasing the recruitment of foreign workers.
At the same time, the growing elderly population is placing additional pressure on healthcare, long-term care, and pension systems. Local communities are also struggling with school closures, declining commercial activity, and rising numbers of abandoned homes, with some areas at risk of becoming “disappearing towns.”
As Japan confronts a rapidly deepening demographic crisis, policymakers face mounting challenges in improving childcare support, reducing financial burdens on younger generations, and building a society that better balances work and family life. How effectively these measures are implemented will be crucial in determining whether Japan can stabilize its population decline in the future.
